The main task was to conduct the economic viability study of the additional road section ns shall be conducted based on international standards.
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Performing cost-benefit analyses to assess the economic viability of transportation projects, weighing the costs against the anticipated benefits to determine their overall value to society.
The service under this ToR shall include but not limited to:
1) Traffic Analysis
2) Condition Survey-Vision assessment of the surface condition
3) Assessment of Economic Costs and Benefits
4) Economic Evaluation
5) Risks, sensitivity and switching values analysis
1) Existing traffic composition, occupancy, , and volume counts;
2) ;
3) Forecasts of annual average daily traffic composed of normal, generated and diverted flows by appropriate vehicle types
Task A-2 Economic Benefits
Economic benefits shall be expressed primarily in terms of:
1) Savings in vehicle operating costs;
2) Savings in road maintenance expenditure;
3) Residual value of the road’s structures at the end of the evaluation period;
4) Value of time savings and reduced accident cost;
5) Greenhouse gas emission reduction, and
6) Any other factors (exogenous benefits) that the consultant shall consider relevant for the analyses, for example: employment generation induced agricultural production, accident prevention, etc.
The economic viability shall be expressed, for alternative homogeneous road sections as proposed and justified by the consultant for the entire section 2 in terms of:
1) The economic internal rate of return (EIRR);
2) The net present value (NPV) in relation to the Government’s current opportunity cost of capital;
3) The benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and
4) The Consultant will express the results of the economic analysis in terms of the first year rate of return (FYRR) to indicate the optimum year of construction and opening of the road. The test discount rate is 12%.
Task A-4 Project Risk Analysis
Having established the Economic Viability of the proposed roads, the Consultant shall conduct a risk analysis, which shall determine the principal risks including work accidents or any anticipated incidence that are associated with the timely achievement of the project resulting from the study. The Consultant shall then recommend ways and means of mitigating the situation.
The Consultant shall execute a stochastic risk analysis on the central deterministic NPV and EIRR estimates. The consultant shall utilize a recognized risk assessment software package to generate a triangular type probability distributions for those variables considered most likely to influence project net benefits including investment costs and traffic growth.
The Consultant shall propose the cost of such data collection activities in their proposal as reimbursable.